Prediction of Precipitation in Saraikela-Kharsawan District of Jharkhand by Statistical Downscaling Method

EasyChair Preprint 5005

Abstract

Over the years, changing climate has been a matter of concern which has led to drastic changes in various climatic factors like precipitation, temperature, humidity etc. The state of Jharkhand receives a lower amount of precipitation when compared with other states of India. So the objective of the study was to predict the future rainfall of a district receiving moderate to low rainfall. The second generation of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was the chosen Global Climatic Model for the study. The historical precipitation data of the district Saraikela-Kharsawan that was used to downscale was chosen from the 15 years span of 1980-1995. The prediction of the monthly average precipitation was based on two separate Representative Concentration Pathways i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with an aim to find out the precipitation from 2080-2090 considering whether the emission of greenhouse gas CO₂ will be controlled or will not be controlled in the upcoming years. The study proves that there is an increase of 16.44% while considering RCP4.5 and a considerable increase of 24.10% while considering RCP8.5 until the year 2090. By this study, there is a future scope of prediction of river flow, groundwater recharge, sedimentation etc for that particular district of Saraikela-Kharsawan.

Keyphrases: Emission, Greenhouse, Runoff, Sedimentation, downscale, reservoir

@booklet{EasyChair:5005,
  author    = {Nirup Sundar Mandal and Sanat Nalini Sahoo},
  title     = {Prediction of Precipitation in Saraikela-Kharsawan District of Jharkhand by Statistical Downscaling Method},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 5005},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2021}}