Technology Roadmapping of Emerging Technologies: Scientometrics, Time Series Analysis and SAO-based Approach

EasyChair Preprint no. 53

Abstract

This work proposes an approach which combines a set of quantitative methods to generate technological roadmaps, which draw on Science, Technology & Innovation data. The approach is designed to be applied to emerging technologies and its outcomes can be considered as inputs for competitive technical intelligence activities. It comprises five integrated methods within the tech mining field, namely: scientometrics, for the retrieving and structuring of scientific publications and patents; text mining, in terms of term-clumping and subject-action-object analysis, for topical analysis; hierarchical clustering, to identify the structure of the technology; time series analysis, to get a quantitative measure of the evolution and forecast of the technology; and technological roadmapping, to integrate all the information in a single picture. The approach was applied to the combined field of additive manufacturing in aeronautics. The data was retrieved from Patseer, Web of Science and Scopus databases and the application of the overall approach allowed us to understand both what ideas have dominated the evolution of technology, and which can do so in the near future. Findings were placed in a technological roadmap. In the initial years, it shows embryonic developments of the technology, such as prototypes manufactured by stereolithography. On the other hand, in the short-term future it reveals new products to be available in the market, such as 3D printed blisk blades and 3D printed acoustic liners. Future lines of research should consider the integration of webscraping to identify subject-action-object structures in specialized webpages.

Keyphrases: emerging technologies, Patentometric, Scientometric, Subject–Action–Object (SAO), Technology Roadmapping, time series analysis

@Booklet{EasyChair:53,
  author = {Iñaki Bildosola and René Lezama-Nicolás and Rosamaría Río-Bélver and Marisela Rodríguez-Salvador},
  title = {Technology Roadmapping of Emerging Technologies: Scientometrics, Time Series Analysis and SAO-based Approach},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 53},
  doi = {10.29007/jwdc},
  year = {EasyChair, 2018}}