The Introduction of a Fuzzy Parameter to Predict the Devaluation of the Local Currency Caused by the Fall in World Oil Prices

EasyChair Preprint no. 7454

Abstract

In the presented article, the forecast of the USD / AZN currency quotation is considered using fuzzy time series (FTS). It provides a step-by-step description of the methodology, which is the construction of fuzzy sets of terms for the linguistic variable “exchange rate”, the use of input data as numerical values ​​and the calculation predicting future states.

The novelty of this study in the introduction of the new parameter, to reflect the devaluations of 2015 and 2016, resulting from a sharp drop in oil prices. In particular, it takes into account the fact that Azerbaijani manat is a commodity currency, and the against the dollar to manat depends on the cost of oil and is regulated by the state. FTS is predicted in the direction of applying new methods based on Fuzzy Times-Series Data Mining.

Keyphrases: Currency quotation devaluation, discrete fuzzy sets, forecasting trends., fuzzy relations, Fuzzy time series

@Booklet{EasyChair:7454,
  author = {Reyhan Shikhlinskaya},
  title = {The Introduction of a Fuzzy Parameter to Predict the Devaluation of the Local Currency Caused by the Fall in World Oil Prices},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 7454},

  year = {EasyChair, 2022}}