Non-Pharmaceutical Herd Immunity using Homemade Masks

EasyChair Preprint 4432

Abstract

The Coronavirus disease 2019 global pandemic in the United States is without a vaccine or cure to prevent its spread. Social distancing and stay at home orders have created financial turmoil while mandatory mask requirements have created other controversies. This paper presents a simple agent-based SEIR model developed to explore the use of homemade masks of various quality in a representative United States population. The goal of the model is to determine if a non-pharmaceutical herd immunity can be achieved using homemade masks. Doing so without vaccines can lower even the small risk posed by an eventual vaccination. The model demonstrates that at high levels of adoption even a mix of questionable quality homemade masks can “flatten the curve” for the pandemic and could do so without the immediate, sever economic cost of staying at home. The model suggests it is possible for a herd immunity effect to cause an early end to the pandemic resulting in fewer affected individuals.

Keyphrases: COVID-19, Disease Modeling, SEIR model, agent-based model, herd immunity, homemade masks, mask category, non pharmaceutical herd immunity

@booklet{EasyChair:4432,
  author    = {Dale Brearcliffe},
  title     = {Non-Pharmaceutical Herd Immunity using Homemade Masks},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 4432},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2020}}