A Model for Delay Analysis Impact at Planning Phase of Oil & Gas Pipeline Projects: A case of Iraq

9 pages•Published: May 15, 2022

Raj Shah, Layth Kraidi, Wilfred Matipa and Fiona Borthwick

Abstract

Project delay and cost overrun are major issues caused by the associated Risk Factors (RFs) in any projects including Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects (OGPPs). This problem is exacerbated by the subjective nature of the identification and quantification of delay factors t at the planning stage. To overcome above issues, this research designs a Delay Analysis Model (DAM) at planning stage of the project by introducing fuzzy logic in delay analysis; hence, systematize and objectify the quantification of the process. The paper presents a step-by-step process of identifying the RFs and quantifying the probability of project delivery. The main inputs of the model are the RFs, level of impact, and the estimated maximum & minimum duration of each task of the project. The model is integrated within @Risk simulator integrated with Monte Carlo Simulation to quantify the delay impact in projects. The key output of the study is a useful delay analysis tool that help to identify and quantify the potential delay impacts and the confidence level of project deliver in time at the planning stage so that proactive measures could be taken in advance. The model was evaluated using a case study of an OGPP in Iraq. The findings suggested that a potential overall delay at all stages of the project was found around 45 days that might occur due to the associated risk factors in the project.

Keyphrases: @risk simulator, delay analysis model, monte carlo simulation, oil and gas pipelines, project delay

In: Tom Leathem, Wes Collins and Anthony Perrenoud (editors). ASC2022. 58th Annual Associated Schools of Construction International Conference, vol 3, pages 299-307.

Links:	https://easychair.org/publications/paper/ffpC
	https://doi.org/10.29007/m9hk

BibTeX entry

@inproceedings{ASC2022:Model_Delay_Analysis_Impact,
  author    = {Raj Shah and Layth Kraidi and Wilfred Matipa and Fiona Borthwick},
  title     = {A Model for Delay Analysis Impact at Planning Phase of Oil & Gas Pipeline Projects: A case of Iraq},
  booktitle = {ASC2022. 58th Annual Associated Schools of Construction International Conference},
  editor    = {Tom Leathem and Wes Collins and Anthony Perrenoud},
  series    = {EPiC Series in Built Environment},
  volume    = {3},
  publisher = {EasyChair},
  bibsource = {EasyChair, https://easychair.org},
  issn      = {2632-881X},
  url       = {/publications/paper/ffpC},
  doi       = {10.29007/m9hk},
  pages     = {299-307},
  year      = {2022}}

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